In D.C., more evidence that commercial real estate headed for foreclosure crisis
By V. Dion Haynes
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday,
February 19, 2010; A01
A mortgage crisis like the one that has devastated homeowners is enveloping
the nation's office and retail buildings, and few places are likely to be hit as
hard as Washington.
The foreclosure wave is likely to swamp many smaller community banks across
the country, and many well-known properties, including Washington's Mayflower
Hotel and the Boulevard at the Capital Centre in Largo, are at risk, industry
analysts say.
The new round of financial pain, which some had anticipated but hoped to
avoid, now seems all but certain. "There's been an enormous bubble in commercial
real estate, and it has to come down," said Elizabeth
Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, the watchdog created
by Congress to monitor the financial bailout. "There will be significant
bankruptcies among developers and significant failures among community banks."
Unlike the largest banks, such as Citigroup and Wachovia, that got into so
much trouble early on, the community banks in general fared better in the
residential mortgage crisis. But their turn is coming: Not only did community
banks issue a higher proportion of commercial loans, but they also have held on
to them rather than sell them to other investors.
Nearly 3,000 community banks -- 40 percent of the banking system -- have a
high proportion of commercial real estate loans relative to their capital, said
Warren, whose committee issued a report on commercial real estate last week.
"Every dollar they lose in commercial real estate is a dollar they can't use for
small businesses," she said. Individuals -- who saw their home values drop in
the residential mortgage crisis -- would not feel that kind of loss, but, Warren
said, a large-scale failure would "throw sand into the gears of economic
recovery."
In Washington, the number of troubled properties has multiplied at a
phenomenal rate, with the value growing from only $13 million in 2007 to $40
billion now, according to CoStar Group, a Bethesda real estate research company.
The region trails only South Florida and metropolitan New York in the per capita
value of commercial real estate assets in foreclosure, default or delinquency,
according to the research group Real Capital Analytics.
The threat is especially acute in the District, the firm said, where the
catalogue of troubled commercial real estate properties has grown tenfold since
April. Moreover, the region has $7.3 billion in commercial properties that are
underwater -- worth less than the mortgages on them -- according to CoStar.
Whether the commercial real estate bubble bursts in a catastrophic event or
subsides slowly and less dangerously will be determined during the next year. An
immediate crisis was postponed when domestic and foreign investors began
snatching up troubled properties at bargain prices. And banks more and more are
renegotiating loans, extending the terms by a year or two in the hope that
conditions will improve rather than calling in mortgages that cannot be paid.
In Washington, the office vacancy rate stopped ballooning in the fourth
quarter of last year for the first time since the first quarter of 2006,
according to CoStar, although largely for an unfortunate reason: The space was
being filled mainly by office workers hired to handle the plethora of bankruptcy
filings and "workouts" of borrowers who need to renegotiate bad debt.
And last quarter, for the first time since the second quarter of 2008, the
Washington area office market saw a strong net gain -- 925,000 square feet of
space that had been "absorbed" or leased by new tenants, according to CoStar.
"There's light at the end of the tunnel," said Andrew Florance, chief
executive of CoStar. "But in commercial real estate it's a very, very long
tunnel and many people will not come out of it."
'Do the math'
Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected
to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial
real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of
residential mortgages are underwater now, she said.
Unlike residential mortgages, which often can be paid over 30 years,
commercial real estate mortgages typically must be paid off or refinanced within
five years. Commercial properties mortgaged in 2005, 2006 and 2007, at the
height of the boom, are reaching their maturity date. "Do the math on this,"
Warren said. "This is a significant problem."
The Renaissance Mayflower Hotel in downtown Washington is unable to meet its
debt because of falling room rates, said Frank Innaurato, managing director of
the credit-rating firm Realpoint, and the Boulevard at the Capital Centre in
Largo, after losing several national retailers, had to extend its $71.5 million
bank loan when it matured last fall, according to CoStar.
An office building at 1150 18th St. NW, bought in 2007 for $57.5 million, was
sold at foreclosure in December for $21.7 million after losing 25 percent of its
tenants, according to CoStar. Even the Mortgage Bankers Association has fallen
victim, selling its $90 million Washington headquarters earlier this month for
$41 million. Real Capital Analytics and others, however, attribute the surge
here largely to Tishman Speyer Properties, which has about 20 D.C. office
buildings, according to public records and real estate analysts, and last month
walked away from its $5.4 billion Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village
apartments in New York after defaulting on the mortgage.
Now a rival, Brookfield Properties, is buying the company's debt on the D.C.
buildings, according to Debtwire, which reports on distressed properties. They
include International Square on the 1800 block of I Street NW and several
buildings on Pennsylvania Avenue NW. The company, according to the report,
defaulted on its loan during the summer.
In a statement, Tishman Speyer said it is continuing "discussions with our
lender group" on its D.C. area debt. Neither Tishman Speyer nor Brookfield
commented on the purported deal.
Plans undermined
What happened to Broadway 401, which operates the Dumont on Massachusetts
Avenue NW near Fourth Street, has become an all-too-familiar story. In 2006, it
borrowed $190 million, constructing two high-rise condominium buildings at the
height of the District's real estate boom.
But the market crashed, and Broadway wasn't able pay off the loan when it
matured in August 2008 because it couldn't sell enough units, according to court
filings. About a year later, with the lenders seeking to foreclose, Broadway
tried to sell the properties. It gave up after the buildings, appraised at only
$140 million, garnered bids ranging from $90 million to $133 million. Finally,
last month, Broadway filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying it owed
$250 million from its unpaid principal and accrued interest from various loans.
David Weldler, manager of the Broadway properties, did not respond to phone
messages seeking comment. In the bankruptcy filing, he said the recession
undermined the business plan. "The volume of residential sales has dropped
significantly in the U.S., residential prices have declined and credit standards
have been tightened, making it considerably more difficult" for buyers to
qualify for loans, he wrote.
Rockwood Capital, which owns the Mayflower, is in discussions with its lender
to modify its loan, Innaurato said. The hotel reduced its rates to maintain
occupancy, Innaurato said, and fell behind on payments.
"The loan was 30 days delinquent in January 2010," Innaurato said. Officials
at Rockwood Capital declined to comment. "They're most likely asking to lower
the interest rate or forbearance of payment."
Staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.
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